It is not easy to solve. We have to do enough work to go past "Mount Stupid". Yet not too much work, especially on non-critical factors, where our "conviction" miscalibrates the actual probability of getting it right (e.g. the illusion of knowledge effect).
Totally agree on conviction. it killed me before. Now I have almost none and I diversify.
The cost of conviction is under-discussed.
It is not easy to solve. We have to do enough work to go past "Mount Stupid". Yet not too much work, especially on non-critical factors, where our "conviction" miscalibrates the actual probability of getting it right (e.g. the illusion of knowledge effect).