Deep Dive: Keyence Corp (6861, KYCCF)
The crown jewel of industrial automation
Keyence is a true compounder and ranks amongst the finest businesses globally. Over the last decade, Keyence has compounded its revenue and net profit at a rate of 18% per annum, achieving operating margins over 50%, and Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of around 100%. Even at its size, it has outgrown both local and overseas competitors!
Investing in a true compounder requires strong conviction for two reasons.
First, compounders seldom trade down to very ‘obvious’ multiples. You need conviction to actually get in.
Second, they must be held over extended periods and through cycles. The biggest detractor of returns on compounders is the urge to trade or sell.
We believe that compounders may be easy to spot, but hard to make money on.
Importantly, with the surge of global investor interest in Japan, we think now is the right time to sharpen the pencil on Keyence. As arguably the best publicly listed business in Japan, we think Keyence will likely find its way into more global investors’ portfolios over time.
We have distilled over a decade worth of experience in studying and investing in Keyence into this report.
We hope this will give our readers a deeper understanding and conviction on this one-of-a-kind asset.
Business Description
Keyence is a leading global supplier of industrial automation equipment and solutions, including sensors, vision systems, measurement equipment, and process control.
Most of Keyence’s products deal with the detection, identification, or measurement of various objects and matters. Sensors are the company’s bread and butter, but the product portfolio is much more diverse, with over 10k SKUs that spans five major product groups. We describe them below.
Sensors are used on assembly lines for quality inspection and control. Sensors can detect defects and inconsistencies in various objects, such as height, thickness, angle, elevation, positioning, and more. It does so with extreme speed and sensitivity, capable of measuring 4,000-5,000 parts per hour at micron-level accuracy (1/1,000th of a millimeter).
Keyence also has sensors that detect non-static properties, including vibration, rate of flow (liquid), gas pressure, and temperature.
Measurement systems and microscopes are capital equipment used in laboratory or factory workstation settings, mostly for R&D or detailed parts inspections. Here are some of Keyence’s main products in this category:
Image Dimension Measurement System generates high-definition images of objects of all sizes and shapes, and uses image processing software to automatically measure and output its various internal dimensions.
Elemental Analyzer predicts the composition and concentration of different elements in a sample (e.g. copper 76%, tin 23%, nickel 0.85%, sulfur 0.15%) by projecting a special laser and analyzing the unique energy signatures emitted from the sample. This can be done on a wide range of materials, from metals and alloys to plastics, ceramics, and organic compounds.
3D Surface Profilers captures and analyzes surface topography of objects, such as surface roughness, waviness, irregularities, and other surface parameters at an extremely fine resolution (up to 0.01 nanometer).
Vision systems make use of high-speed camera and advanced lighting technologies to capture 2D and 3D imagery of objects on an assembly line, which is then analyzed by image processing software. Vision systems can be integrated with industrial robots to serve as the “eyes” for the robot.
Keyence is particularly strong when it comes to its innovative lighting technology and the quality of its image acquisition, and is widely regarded as the global leader in 3D vision.
Marking and printing includes laser markers which are used for engraving texts, such as batch number or product expiry date, on the assembly line. Industrial inkjet printer does the same thing with ink rather than laser. Keyence also sells 3D printers.
Process control: Main products here include PLCs (programmable logic controllers), servomotors, and industrial touchscreens. An intuitive way to think of these would be the “brain” (PLC), “muscle” (servomotors), and “interface” (touchscreen) in a factory. These work closely with Keyence’s other products including sensors and vision systems, and there are cross-selling synergies.
Keyence is far from being alone in the global industrial automation sector. With a plethora of competitors - mainly from Japan, Germany, and the United States - there is a lot of competition in each of the above five product categories.
So, what sets Keyence apart from the crowd?
The answer is innovation.
Keyence proudly claims that 70% of all new products that it releases each year incorporates either “world’s first” or “industry first” features. These unique features helps customers improve their productivity, and allows Keyence to both differentiate its product from competitors as well as to charge a premium price.
Consider the 3D robotics vision system as an example. Traditionally, these systems required a lot of time and expertise for installation and calibration. Sensors have to be precisely positioned, initial data collected for baseline measurements, and then fine-tuned through many iterations to make sure the robot could accurately perceive the 3D world. This entire process could take several days. Keyence has streamlined this process down to just 15 minutes through innovations in learning software. Essentially, the system self-calibrates and fine-tunes, significantly reducing the need for human intervention.
While competitors might eventually catch up and reproduce these innovations, by that time, Keyence has already moved onto launching newer, more innovative products. Keyence has maintained this pace of innovation, consistently staying one step ahead of their competition. How does Keyence do this? We explore this next.
Competitive advantages and moat
In a technical field like industrial automation, one might fixate on tangible, or "hard" advantages like proprietary technology. Keyence indeed possesses a highly technically skilled workforce. But it’s important to understand that Keyence's competitive advantages are deeply rooted not solely on technical expertise, but more importantly, in its unique organizational and cultural edge. Keyence teaches us is how powerful these intangible or “soft” advantages are and how difficult it can be for others to replicate them.
Keyence is differentiated through its sales force and product development – two distinct but highly intertwined functions in the organization.
Direct sales force
Keyence is renowned for its skilled and efficient sales force. The firm exclusively hires individuals with strong engineering or technical backgrounds. Its salespeople are not merely pushing products from a catalogue, but are expected to have a deep technical understanding of customers’ operations and processes. They act much like consultants and analysts.
It’s sometimes said that Keyence’s salesforce resembles that of the front office staff of a top-tier consulting company or an investment bank rather than a typical manufacturer. For instance, engineering graduates can expect to earn two to three times more at Keyence in their 20s compared to other engineering roles. Once on board, they are expected to be self-motivated learners, committing to intense work hours. Keyence employs a strategy of recruiting top-tier talent, offering them highly lucrative pay, and pushing them to their limits.
Unfortunately, employee burnouts are also quite common. But it’s undeniable that the quality of talent at Keyence is top notch.
“I will be totally honest with you. If I had an application like the Keyence camera and the Cognex camera could both do it, the exact same way, the same price, I was winning pretty much every time. That’s because of the Keyence sales force versus the Cognex sales force…if all things are even and it came down to the actual salesperson, Keyence usually won”.
- Former Specialist Account Executive at Keyence (Feb 2023, Stream Transcript)
Beyond just having a skilled workforce, Keyence’s unique advantage is its direct sales model. Most of Keyence’s competitors either rely solely on distributors to sell products, or have some kind of hybrid model where they have a small team of in-house sales for covering large accounts, while distributors are used for covering smaller sized or regional accounts.
The direct sales model gives Keyence two unique advantages.
First, salespeople visit customer sites directly, giving them firsthand information on customer operations. Keyence is extremely strategic and has essentially systemized the collection of customer data. Salespeople records even the smallest details into their internal database after every visit. This is done so meticulously that customers are often surprised by how much Keyence knows about their operations. For instance, Keyence is aware of the specific brand of equipment customers use in their facilities, its age, and when it may require replacement—information that they will use proactively to reach out to the customers when the time is right.
Secondly, the direct sales model ensures Keyence has full control over all customer experiences including aftersales. Keyence is known in the industry for its rapid response time. A call to Keyence can typically resolve problems within hours, rather than days. Clients have the full confidence that Keyence will resolve their issues right away, rather than being caught in a back-and-forth game of “ping pong” between the distributor and manufacturer. In fact, Keyence’s service is so strong that system integrators prefers to work with Keyence’s products, with one CEO of a system integrator claiming it’s “as if though we have received an extension of our own customer support”.
So the question is: if the direct sales model of Keyence is so superior, why haven't competitors followed suit?
We surmise that the transition is very difficult for organizations that are accustomed to the distributor model. The challenge with a big transition like this is that it carries substantial risk of market share loss.
The relationship between distributors and clients should not be underestimated. It’s quite common to see clients do business with the same distributor for decades, especially in regional areas. Distributors hold sway over loyal customers, and breaking from these distributor almost certainly means losing some of these customers. It's also important to note that direct servicing capabilities cannot be built overnight. A poorly managed transition could lead to customer dissatisfaction and churn.
Consider a Keyence competitor like Omron that consistently sees sales growth of 3-5% annually. If you are the CEO of Omron, would you risk a drastic change in the sales organization, which could put the company at risk of market share losses and negative growth? We believe most organizations would not undertake such risks unless they were left with no other options.
Product development
Keyence's product development benefits from the customer knowledge gathered by the direct sale force.
To illustrate this connection between the direct sales force and product development, there is something that is internally referred to at Keyence as the “Needs Card”. These Needs Cards describes customer desires for products or features that have not yet been created, and each salesperson is required to submit one Needs Card per month. Assuming Keyence has roughly 3,000 employees in sales (30% of total employees) each submitting 12 Needs Cards per year, that amounts to over 36,000 potential new ideas per year for the products department to review!
But the idea contribution doesn’t solely come from just the salespeople. At Keyence, the entire products team, including project managers, engineers, and even UX designers, often join salespeople on customer site visits to see firsthand how the products are being used and what challenges customers have. There is an extremely strong “on-the-ground” culture that permeates throughout the organization, extending beyond just the sales department.
At the heart of Keyence's product development is a nimble group of elite product generalists. Each product manager takes a product from start to finish. According to a former product manager at Keyence, what really sets them apart from competitors is the degree to which project ownership is entrusted to a single manager. Keyence is acutely aware of the dysfunction that can set in at large organizations when product development merely becomes a game of rubber stamping between different departments.
Another advantage Keyence has when it comes to product development is design flexibility. Keyence outsources the lion’s share of production to contracting manufacturers. This enhances freedom as product designs don’t have to be bound by the capabilities or constraints of in-house facilities. For example, features can be added or taken out without having to manage factory utilization rates. The focus is on finding the best partner to execute the manufacturing.
Keyence doesn’t maintain a dedicated R&D department or engage in scientific research. This is to avoid having a scientific team dictate the product roadmap.
Essentially, what Keyence is doing here is avoiding the “sunk cost fallacy” which often ensnares organizations. For example, we tend to see this rather often with Japanese companies where they have the tendency to over-commit to certain technology or product features. These companies end up producing what their scientists or engineers wish to create, not necessarily what customers actually want or can afford. As an aside, we surmise that this is one reason for the decline in global competitiveness for some Japanese companies and their products.
Perhaps Keyence’s unique flexible approach here offers valuable lessons for other Japanese companies.
Growth
Over the period from FY2012 to 2023, Keyence grew topline at 15% CAGR. This breaks down into:
Japan: 8.8% CAGR
Overseas: 22.2% CAGR
Here’s how it compares against peers in the industrial automation sector:
Cognex: 10.9% CAGR
SMC: 7.6%
Yaskawa: 5.5%
FANUC: 4.3%
Omron: 3.2%
Rockwell Automation: 2.4%
According to most third-party market research firms, the global industrial automation market is expected to grow at 8-10% CAGR until 2030. If Keyence can continue to outgrow the market, we can expect topline growth in the low teens range.
Industrial automation is a growth industry due to the following factors:
Reduction in working-age population
Wage inflation
Geopolitical trend of supply chain decoupling, leading to a growing drive to establish more manufacturing bases in the Western world. For example, major Japanese corporations have been bringing their manufacturing back to Japan.
Changes/advances in technology
Given these structural shifts, we think industrial automation can likely sustain a rate of growth exceeding GDP rates for an extended period.
The advantage that Keyence (and potentially its Japanese peers) brings to the landscape is that Japan has been grappling with labor shortages more seriously and for a longer time than most other nations. While Japan has been a growth market for Keyence, the much bigger opportunity has been exporting their industrial automation expertise outside of the Japanese market.
Keyence has been so successful overseas that overseas sales now accounts for 60% of the company’s total revenue - all of this organic. Keyence has achieved growth in almost every market it has ventured into. What's remarkable is that unlike many Japanese companies that rely on distributors and local partners when expanding overseas, Keyence built its business from the ground up. It successfully replicated its direct sales model, hired and trained local personnel, and ingrained its system and culture in its overseas offices.
Here is one US-based engineer discussing this dynamic:
“Even when I was here in the States, I know some of the time there'd be these applications and then we can reach out to Japan. I'd be like, "Yeah, I was working on this thing." They're like, "Oh, yeah, we have this report that we already made on this, look." It's a detailed guide on exactly how it was solved, everything like that. That became more standard even in the States too, making essentially application guides. I made these guidebooks, where it was just giving what sorts of things you're looking for, what you're trying to accomplish, and then compiling all of the information. It serves both as marketing for these industries, as well as actually training the people who are going to implement it”
- Former Senior Vision Consulting Engineer at Keyence (Feb 2022, Stream Transcript)
Aside from expanding into different geographic markets, another venue for Keyence’s growth has been penetrating into different industries:
“Twenty-five years ago, they were only in manufacturing. About 20 years ago, they started getting more into labs and metrology. This past five years or so, it's really a push into the logistical centers and scan tunnels and dimension way and scan systems in their entire industry…There's still a lot of industry for them to get into. What they're really good at is just finding something unique. Something that is a longstanding problem or an issue that customers have and then coming out with a really innovative, simple solution for it. Again, just to summarize, I expect them to continue to grow and expand into other markets and industries.”
- Former Regional Product Sales Director at Keyence (May 2022, Stream Transcript)
A recent example that illustrates Keyence’s ability to grow and expand into different markets is the company’s foray into the software market with the release of the “KI” series software in Japan. In fact, it’s a pretty extreme example. We are talking about a hardware maker entering a standalone SaaS business and becoming successful in a short period of time.
The KI series is a multi-purpose data analytics software that helps users achieve specific business goals. For example, they can be sales oriented goals (e.g. increase loyal customers, reduce churn, optimize discounting strategy) or operations oriented (determine the preventative maintenance schedule for capital equipment, improve product quality, improve safety, etc.)
Despite launching only three years ago, Keyence has already acquired an impressive list of blue-chip customers across multiple industries, with recognizable names like Lawson, SMBC, Mizuho Bank, Chugai Pharma, Kirin, Nippon Ham, and Pasona.
How did Keyence do this?
The product was borne out of Keyence’s own experience in data analysis. As a successful data-driven sales organization, Keyence believed it had a deep understanding of this field from a user’s perspective. In selling its expertise, Keyence capitalized on its own reputation with the slogan “Do data like Keyence”, which was a highly effective marketing message.
Finally, Keyence has approached its software business through a similar high value-added direct sales approach as it does in selling its sensors and hardware. Looking through customer testimonials, customers seems to consider this a differentiating factor. Customers appreciate Keyence's approach to helping them tackle and solve real business issues, rather than just IT, setting it apart from competing software and IT service vendors.
Financials
Keyence has consistently achieved gross margins exceeding 80% and operating margins exceeding 50%. What allows Keyence to be so profitable?
Strong focus on new product innovation - In interviews, former product development employees have revealed that internally, a gross margin target of 80% is used as a benchmark for all new product approvals. Many new ideas are dropped when they do not meet the margin targets. Although Keyence could probably grow faster if it dropped this target, management seems interested in only highly profitable growth.
While Keyence’s profitability is best-in-class, working capital is not. But this is deliberately done as part of business strategy. There seems to be some trade-offs here.
Keyence keeps a lot of inventory (163 days) in order to fulfill its “one-day delivery” promise. This includes warehousing expensive and slow-moving goods like measurement systems and microscopes, which ties up a lot of working capital. But in turn, this offers customers convenience and is one reason supporting Keyence’s premium pricing.
This strategy was validated during Covid, when Keyence was able to ship products at a time when its competitors were not able to, allowing Keyence to take market share.
Receivables is also quite high at 108 days, the result of Keyence extending generous payment terms to smaller customers. At the same time, payables is only 37 days, indicating Keyence is paying their suppliers fast, perhaps allowing Keyence to get better pricing from suppliers.
Free cash flow conversion has averaged 80-90% which is extremely good (don’t forget - Keyence has minimal capex needs)
Keyence spends less on R&D compared to peers. There are no employees belonging to an “R&D department”. Keyence doesn’t pursue side projects like many other firms do. Comparing R&D spending (percentage of revenue) of Keyence and its peers:
Keyence: 2.3%
Cognex: 14%
Fanuc: 6.8%
Omron: 5.8%
Rockwell Automation: 5.7%
Finally, Keyence is remarkably good at managing costs. For example, Keyence engages in its own manufacturing primarily as a way to accumulate manufacturing process knowhows. It does about 10% of manufacturing in-house, while outsourcing 90%. Doing this gives Keyence a strong grasp of the technologies involved and costs, giving them better negotiation and oversight over manufacturing partners.
Cyclicality
Let’s see how Keyence has fared during the two most recent extreme crises:
COVID-19: Business was highly resilient. Revenue declined by only 8% and net profit by 13%.
The Global Financial Crisis was more painful. Both revenue and profit declined by over 30%. But even at the bottom, the business generated over 25% net profit margin. Revenue recovered to pre-crisis level two years after bottoming.
Keyence has generally enjoyed lower business cyclicality compared to other industrial peers. We believe this is due to the fact that there is a counter-cyclical business element to Keyence’s products. During bad times, automation initiatives still get funded as they are considered an organization’s cost reduction program.
“Sometimes, I would go into an opportunity for a vision system and they would tell me, "This vision system would save us. It would reduce people on three shifts that they we're paying roughly $60,000-$100,000 a year, that's three of them. You're reducing that. We have up to $60,000-$100,000 to spend on vision." That's just for one year. Obviously, the vision system is going to last longer than one year.”
- Former Specialist Account Executive at Keyence (Feb 2023 Stream Transcript)
The anti-fragile nature of Keyence’s business was also in display during Covid:
“Keyence, they carry so much weight and they're so efficient in their supply chain management that they really have not experienced barely any lead time issues at all, which has allowed them to gain an incredible amount of market share throughout the whole pandemic and afterwards as we move forward. They didn't have to let go of anybody during the whole pandemic, which is extremely rare because they had just so much cash and they're so healthy that while other people are having to lay off and really struggle to deliver and just are crumbling, Keyence is thriving in that environment and gaining market share.”
- Former Regional Product Sales Director at Keyence (May 2022, Stream Transcript)
Cash hoard
While a strong balance sheet is generally desirable in cyclical businesses, Keyence has taken it to an extreme. Cash hoarding has been a longstanding point of investor complaint. Keyence generates ROIC of around 100% while its ROE is only in the mid-teens. This gap is explained by the roughly 2 trillion yen of liquidity on the balance sheet, consisting of mainly short and long-term bank deposits and corporate bonds holdings.
In recent years, Keyence has increased its dividend payout from just 6% of net income in 2018 to now 20%. However, this is immaterial and cash hoard continues to grow every year.
Given the recent wave of corporate governance push in Japan and activism by investors, it remains to be seen how these will impact Keyence’s capital allocation policies in the future. We don’t expect much to change for Keyence, but would be happy to be proven wrong.
Management and Culture
Keyence was founded in 1974 by Takemitsu Takizaki (age 78), who currently holds the title of “Honorary Chairman”. He controls 23% of the company’s shares through a variety of vehicles, including his asset management company and charity. Takizaki has consistently been ranked among the top 3 richest individuals in Japan, yet he remains largely unknown to much of the Japanese public.
In a rare interview with the media conducted in 2003, Takizaki expressed contempt for the concept of “strong leadership”. He shuns a top-heavy leadership style which relies on the charisma and business acumen of a single individual leader. He believes such style of management stifles a company’s innovative capacity and also creates a single point of failure. His vision was to create an organization that operates entirely from the bottom up.
Takizaki’s greatest genius was in engineering the organization - deeply ingraining Keyence’s decision making system, value, and culture. From the start, Takizaki has made it clear that his main aim was to build a company that could succeed beyond his leadership. And he has done it - Takizaki hasn't been hands-on with the business since 2000. Since then, three different CEOs have taken the helm. It's been like a revolving door of expendable CEOs, but the business keeps on rolling.
Keyence Uncovered
Entire books have been written on the Keyence culture. We view this as a hyperrational way of running not the factory floor, but an organization. We won’t be able to do justice to this deep topic in just a subsection of this report, however, we include here some of the takeaways that particularly stood out to us in the book ‘Keyence Uncovered’ which talks a lot about the Keyence culture (the book, only available in Japanese, can be purchased here):
Obsession with merit
Keyence wants all of its business to be done on the basis of merit. For example, it wants its client relationships founded upon providing superior products or solutions, rather than personal relationships between a salesperson and a client.
This is why, despite being a sales organization, Keyence employees are banned from all forms of gifts and entertainment involving clients - whether that’s giving or receiving them. Keyence believes doing this forces salespeople to polish up their skills to win clients with their “brains”, rather than other methods which the company considers less proper.
There is an anecdote of a former salesperson covering a breadmaking factory. One day during a site visit, the owner of the factory presented the salesperson with loaves of new bread as gift. The salesperson refused the gift on the spot, stating that it’s against their corporate policies, but as the client kept on insisting, he could not refuse the gift without angering the client. Therefore, he accepted the bread, went back to his office, and turned the bread in to his boss.
Obsession with workplace integrity and fairness
Keyence’s HR policy is simple: punish dishonesty and shirking, while rewarding hard work and performance.
This is what every firm will claim they do, but as you might anticipate by now, Keyence will take this a step beyond. Consider the company’s infamous internal audit team. Keyence has a team of “secret police” within the organization that audits the activities of salespeople. In the past, they have gone to extreme length to verify the integrity of sales logs, by analyzing the electronic record of highway toll booths, cell phone tower signals, and GPS data, to ensure these locational data matches with what’s being recorded by the salesperson.
By now, you might think that Keyence employees are about to go insane. Who would ever want to work under this kind of micromanagement and corporate dictatorship?
Well, guess again. Keyence has one of the highest employee satisfaction scores in Japan. On Openwork, the company has an overall score of 4.26 out of 5, making it among the top 1% of all companies in Japan (average score for Keyence’s peers in the industry is 3.15) Employees have rated fairness, morale, and culture as 4.1, 4.3 and 4.1 out of 5, respectively. Whatever Keyence is doing with its people - it works!
Breaking information siloes
Information siloes are a problem especially at sales organizations, where salespeople naturally tend to territorialize and hoard valuable client information.
Keyence believes information is to be shared for the benefit of all, rather than monopolized by a few employees to the benefit of their own career advancements. At Keyence, information hoarding is not only discouraged, but it’s virtually impossible - salespeople are forced to meticulously document their sales activities and client information in the system. All of this information is made transparent to the entire team.
This level of transparency gives opportunity for less skilled salespeople to observe the strategies and practices of their top-performing peers, and identify areas where they may be falling short. For example, have they been doing enough product demos? Are they speaking to the right decision makers at a client? Keyence isn't interested in a culture of star sales people, but instead, the goal is to disseminate information so that everyone has the potential to become a star salesperson.
Opportunity-cost based mindset
Keyence employees are taught a decision making framework known internally as the “hourly charge”. It’s simple concept - hourly charge is calculated by dividing a firm’s gross profit by the total number of employee hours. It shows how much one employee hour is worth.
Employees are taught that this is the opportunity cost of their time, serving as a guide for prioritizing their tasks. And if an activity is valued clearly below the hourly charge, employees are advised not to spend time on it or to consider outsourcing it.
Valuation
Keyence trades at a forward p/e ratio of 43x (ex-cash 37x). Over the last ten years, 30-35x has been the average trading range, with a high of 68x (in 2021) and a low of 20x (2016).
The market values Keyence at roughly the same multiple as Cognex, while Keyence trades at a premium multiple to other Japanese automation names (Fanuc, Omron, SMC at 26-32x). Granted, Keyence’s premium valuation over peers is justified given superior growth and business quality.
However, as far as predicting the future share price, multiples are only part of the story here.
The other component, often overlooked by value investors, is flows. Global investor interest in Japan is surging. As investors ramp up their allocations to Japan, we believe Keyence is in a sweet spot to find itself into more global investors portfolios.
We see scarcity value in Keyence. Few companies combine the size (liquidity), business quality, and growth potential that Keyence offers. Keyence is also the ideal stock that can make its way into all of quality, growth, and thematic-focused portfolios. Strong flow combined with scarcity value is a highly potent mix for asset price appreciation.
In conclusion, we believe Keyence should be on the watchlist of every global investor. We get it - buying a company at over 40x earnings is probabilistically not the way to generate hall-of-fame type of returns.
We will stop short of issuing a “buy” recommendation here, but let us say this: there are far worse things an investor can do with his or her money than buying one of the best compounders in the world, even at some premium to fair value.
This is a one-of-a-kind asset that will likely surprise on the upside. Over the long-run, we believe those who own Keyence today will still do just fine.
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